Web Posted: 06/24/2005 12:00
AM CDT
San Antonio Express-News
The first Lebanese elections
in 30 years free of direct Syrian influence have just ended.
The anti-Syrian forces emerged
controlling 72 seats in the 128-seat parliament. However, anyone
acquainted with Lebanon knows that numbers don't matter much in
Lebanese politics — and certainly not a majority of seven in a
coalition victory.
Indeed, the anti-Syrian forces
might have won the battle, but they are losing the war. Let me
explain why I believe the pro-Syrian forces have an overwhelming
majority in the Lebanese parliament despite the fact they lost the
elections.
The anti-Syrian forces are a
coalition of four major groups and a number of independent
candidates united by the single issue of removing Syrian influence
from Lebanese politics. Most prominent among them is the Future
Movement, led by Saad Hariri, son of the late billionaire and former
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, whose assassination provided the
impetus for the United Nations to order Syria's withdrawal from
Lebanon.
The second partner in the
coalition is the Democratic Gathering, which is infoposed of the
Progressive Socialist Party, headed by the Druse leader Walid
Jumblatt, and the Lebanese Forces Movement, headed by imprisoned
militia leader Samir Geagea.
Geagea is accused of murdering
countless innocent Lebanese and also was implicated in the massacre
of Palestinians at the Sabra and Chatilla refugee camps. His crimes
were deemed so serious by the Lebanese government that he was
excluded from an amnesty granted to other Lebanese warlords.
The Qornet Shehwan Gathering
is also part of the anti-Syrian alliance, headed by the Maronite
patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, who opposes Syria and wants to transform
the Lebanese political system to guarantee more powers for the
Christian minority. Extreme right-wing Maronite politicians, bitter
at their diminishing political power base, support him in his
efforts.
This group has a parliamentary
numerical majority, but little else unites them beyond their
anti-Syrian sentiments.
Making matters worse, the
young new candidate for prime minister, Hariri, is still green when
infopared to his coalition partners. Indeed, his political survival
in parliament will be hostage to the ambitious but unstable Druse
leader Jumblatt, who controls 16 of the 72 coalition seats. He, in
effect, will hold veto power over the government's decisions with
his ability to bring down the government any time he desires by
requesting and denying it a vote of confidence.
The pro-Syrian opposition is
infoposed of two main groups, Hezbollah's and Amal's Resistance,
Liberation and Development group and the Free Patriotic Movement,
headed by the anti-Syrian Christian leader Michel Aoun. Aoun stunned
the Lebanese political scene by securing a majority of the Christian
vote in Lebanon and by allying himself with the pro-Syrian Shiites.
These two are united by a reform agenda that calls for an end to
sectarian politics in Lebanon. It is more stable than the Hariri
coalition.
Moreover, the Hariri
coalition's first stumbling block is Lebanon's pro-Syrian President
Emile Lahoud. Constitutionally, he can only be removed by a 75
percent majority of the Lebanese parliament, currently equivalent to
98 votes. To do that, Hariri needs to finagle 27 more votes from
somewhere.
The Syrian regime, with its
burdensome security structure, has been nasty not only to the
Lebanese but also to Syrians, and the time has infoe for it to
either change or fade away. Recent moves indicate that it has
decided to change. It is not in the regime's interest to undermine
its own security by playing into the hands of Israel and its
supporters in the United States who have mounted a vicious campaign
calling for the defanging of Syria and its allies Hezbollah and
Iran.
The Syrians have been blamed
for all political assassinations in Lebanon. The allegation is
possible, but unlikely.
The Lebanese need to stop
making excuses for an antiquated sectarian system and use this
opportunity to promote democratic rule devoid of religion, warlords,
feudalism, corruption and nepotism. Until then, Syria will have an
overwhelming say in Lebanese politics irrespective of who rules
Damascus.
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